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By Anna Kate Rogers
May 15, 2024
Investment Management

Portfolio Manager Commentary

May 15, 2024

The Portfolio Manager Commentary is provided by Trustmarkโ€™s Tailored Wealth Investment Management team. The opinions and analysis presented are accurate to the best of our knowledge and are based on information and sources that we consider to be reliable and appropriate for due consideration1.

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Economic Outlook

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 49.2 in April, versus 50.3 in March. The PMI Manufacturing Index fell to 50.0 in April, versus 51.9 for March. The ISM Services Index fell to 49.4 in April, compared to 51.4 the previous month. The U.S. Unemployment Rate rose slightly to 3.9% in April, from 3.8% in March. The NFIB Small Business Index rose to 89.7 for the month of April, versus 88.5 in March. The NAHB Housing Market Index was notably lower at 45, the first decrease in homebuilder sentiment since November 2023. Average Hourly Earnings were up 3.9% year over year, the lowest annual change since June of 2021. Consumer Prices were up 0.3% in April and 3.6% year over year. Producer price increases have accelerated in recent months, as headline PPI increased 2.2% year over year in April.

Fixed Income

The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve remains inverted; however, this inversion has continued to remain somewhat flat. The 10-year yield is currently 4.45%, 37 basis points below the 2-year yield of 4.82%. After reaching 4.81% in late April, the current 30-year Treasury yield now sits at 4.59%. The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve has now been inverted for 22 months. The FOMC has held its Fed Funds target rate range at 5.25% to 5.50% since last July. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool predicts the FOMC will cut the Federal Funds target rate 1-2 times later this year. However, bond markets are more speculative, only pricing in a 35% chance of one rate cut this year.

Yield Curve

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

Current Generic Bond Yields

Current Generic Bond Yields

Equity

The S&P 500 Index has rebounded sharply since its pullback in April. The index is up 4.32% since May 1 and is approaching a new all-time high. Year to date, the leading sectors are Communication Services (+18.63), Utilities (+12.24%), and Information Technology (+12.02). The sectors with the largest drawdowns this year include Real Estate (-5.61%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.43%), and Health Care (+5.05%).

After consolidating gains in April, Growth stocks continue to outperform Value stocks. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is up 11.36% this year, while the Russell 3000 Value Index is up just 6.76%. Equity markets have performed well this year even as expectations for rate cuts continue to be pushed further into the future.

Index Returns
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April 1, 2024

U.S. Industrial Production was up 0.10% for February, after having been down 0.50% in February.

April 15, 2024

The ISM Manufacturing Index was 50.3 for March, while the PMI Manufacturing Index was 51.9 for March.

May 1, 2024

U.S. Industrial Production was up 0.40% in March, the same rate of increase as April.

1Sources of statistical information are Bloomberg, Factset Research Systems, and Ned Davis Research. Non-deposit investment products are not insured or guaranteed by any government agency or government sponsored agency of the federal government or any state; are not deposits, obligations, or guaranteed by Trustmark National Bank or its affiliates; and are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal. The opinions and analysis in this report are accurate to the best of our knowledge and are based on information and sources that we consider to be reliable and appropriate for due consideration. The volatility of market conditions and any change from the basic set of assumptions used herein could lead to substantial differences in the projected results and conclusions in this report. All projections, prices and assumptions herein are subject to change without notice. We do not guarantee the results, performance or liquidity of the securities discussed and any strategy or investment selection remains your responsibility. This report is strictly for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for any transaction. Tailored Wealth Investment Management is a division of Trustmark Wealth Management.