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By Tony Jasinski
December 01, 2023
Investment Management

Portfolio Manager Commentary

December 1, 2023

The Portfolio Manager Commentary is provided by Trustmarkโ€™s Tailored Wealth Investment Management team. The opinions and analysis presented are accurate to the best of our knowledge and are based on information and sources that we consider to be reliable and appropriate for due consideration1.

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Economic Outlook

U.S. Durable Goods Orders were down 5.4% in October versus having been up in September. The Chicago PMI was up to 55.8 in October from 44.0 in September. The U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators was down 0.80% in October after having been down for several months before October. The University of Michigan Sentiment Index came out at 61.3 for November versus 60.4 for October. Finally, new U.S. Single-Family Home Sales came in at 679,000 units on an annualized basis for October versus 719,000 units in September.

Fixed Income

The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve remains inverted, however this inversion has continued to stay flatter somewhat, with the 10-year yield at 4.29%, 37 basis points below the 2-year yield of 4.66%. The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve has now been inverted for 17 months. At its recent November meeting, the FOMC left the Federal Funds target rate range at 5.25% - 5.50%. The three-month and six-month U.S. Treasury Bills currently yield in a range of 5.08%-5.38%, which is within the range of the FOMCโ€™s current Fed Funds rate target.

Yield Curve

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

Current Generic Bond Yields

Current Generic Bond Yields

Equity

US equity had a strong month as November saw the S&P 500 large cap index up 7.98%. Continued soft-landing expectations and Fedspeak were largely responsible for the rally as Fed Governor Waller commented he is confident that Fed policy is well positioned to get inflation back to 2% and there is no reason for rates to remain high assuming inflation continues to come down.

Almost all sectors finished the month positively with Tech (+10.75%) continuing to lead the way. Financials (+10.22%) finished strong after a rough start to the year while Energy (-0.48%) was the only negative sector.

Index Returns
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September 15, 2023

U.S. Durable Goods Orders were down 5.2% in July versus having been down 5.2% in June.

November 1, 2023

U.S. Industrial Production was up 0.30% in September after having been flat in August.

November 15, 2023

U.S. Durable Good Orders were up 4.6% annualized in September after having a similar increase in August.

1Sources of statistical information are Bloomberg, Factset Research Systems, and Ned Davis Research. Non-deposit investment products are not insured or guaranteed by any government agency or government sponsored agency of the federal government or any state; are not deposits, obligations, or guaranteed by Trustmark National Bank or its affiliates; and are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal. The opinions and analysis in this report are accurate to the best of our knowledge and are based on information and sources that we consider to be reliable and appropriate for due consideration. The volatility of market conditions and any change from the basic set of assumptions used herein could lead to substantial differences in the projected results and conclusions in this report. All projections, prices and assumptions herein are subject to change without notice. We do not guarantee the results, performance or liquidity of the securities discussed and any strategy or investment selection remains your responsibility. This report is strictly for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for any transaction. Tailored Wealth Investment Management is a division of Trustmark Wealth Management.